The latest report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) marks a significant inflection point in global migration trends. After several years of rapid growth, driven by rich nations scrambling to fill post-pandemic labour shortages, migration flows are showing signs of a sharp slowdown, particularly in work-related categories. This shift poses new economic, social, and policy challenges for member states.
The Sharp Retreat of Labour Migration
The most striking trend in the data is the 21% drop in labour-driven migration to OECD countries. Permanent migration slipped by 4% overall, but the fall in work-related moves—to approximately 934,000 in 2024—is a clear indication of changing dynamics. This decline can be attributed to a combination of factors:
- Softer Labour Market Conditions: The feverish hiring pace seen after the initial COVID-19 recovery appears to be easing, resulting in fewer job openings for foreign workers.
- Stricter Visa Policies: Policy tightening in key destinations, such as the UK, is taking hold. Notably, labour migration has dipped below pre-pandemic levels in several core EU countries, including Germany and the Netherlands.
While immigrants in many host countries continue to perform well in the labour market, this trend suggests that migration will provide less of an immediate boost to workforce growth than it has in recent years. This is a critical concern, as the OECD had previously warned that without continued migration, its members could see their labour forces contract by around 8% by 2060 due to rapidly ageing societies.
Sustained Pressure from Family and Humanitarian Flows
In contrast to the work-related slowdown, the report found a sustained and substantial rise in family and humanitarian migration. The total of 6.2 million people who settled in member states last year, despite the slight overall slip, was still about 15% higher than before the pandemic.
This sustained inflow, shifting towards non-economic categories, places significant fresh pressure on integration systems. As OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann noted, effective migration policies are required to manage “associated pressures on public services.”
The burden is being felt most acutely on essential services: housing, education, and welfare. Integrating individuals arriving through humanitarian and family channels, who often face greater challenges in immediate labour market entry, requires robust public investment and streamlined support systems to prevent strain on the social fabric.
Policy Imperatives: Bridging the Integration Gap
The OECD report delivers a crucial message to policymakers: the focus must shift from merely managing numbers to optimizing integration and addressing economic disparity.
Cormann’s point about the large labour earnings gaps between immigrants and native-born workers is pivotal. This gap highlights systemic failures in recognizing the value and qualifications of new arrivals. Key policy priorities must therefore include:
- Streamlining Qualification Recognition: Governments must accelerate the assessment and validation of foreign professional qualifications to allow skilled immigrants to enter their appropriate fields quickly.
- Optimising Support Policies: Investing in high-quality policies that support language acquisition, job searching, and skills development is essential. Without these, the economic potential of immigrants remains unrealised, and the burden on welfare systems increases.
Ultimately, the current slowdown in work-related migration is a wake-up call. It gives rich countries a moment to recalibrate their strategies. While the economic necessity of migration remains undeniable given demographic trends, the focus can no longer solely be on filling vacancies. A comprehensive approach must integrate robust economic recruitment with significant investment in social infrastructure to ensure that new arrivals—whether for work or humanitarian reasons—can be successfully absorbed and contribute fully to their new societies.
