The answer is not found in a single event, but rather in a systematic tightening of Swedish migration law that began in earnest in 2024 and culminated in major legislative changes in April 2025. As we look ahead to 2026, these trends are expected to accelerate further as the government implements the next phase of its “paradigm shift” in migration policy.

In recent months, a shift in Sweden’s migration landscape has become undeniable. Reports and statistics from late 2025 indicate a tangible increase in the number of individuals being deported or returning voluntarily to their countries of origin. For many observers, this raises a critical question: Why are so many people being deported from Sweden right now?

Based on official reports from the Swedish Migration Agency (Migrationsverket) and the Government Offices of Sweden (Regeringskansliet), here is a comprehensive breakdown of the factors driving this increase.

1. The Abolition of “Track Changing” (Spårbyte)

One of the most significant reasons for the current rise in returns is the removal of a legal pathway known as “track changing” (spårbyte).

For years, Sweden allowed asylum seekers whose applications were rejected to apply for a work permit without leaving the country, provided they had found employment during the asylum process. This system was designed to retain labor, but the current government argued it undermined the asylum system by creating a “loophole” where a rejection wasn’t really a rejection.

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On April 1, 2025, this possibility was officially abolished. According to the Swedish Migration Agency’s forecasts, this legislative change has had an immediate impact. Individuals who previously would have switched tracks and stayed in Sweden as workers are now receiving enforceable deportation orders. With this exit route closed, the number of people with no legal grounds to stay has naturally increased, leading to higher deportation figures.

2. Stricter Statute of Limitations for Deportation Orders

Another technical but crucial change involves the “statute of limitations” (preskriptionstid) on deportation orders.

Under the old rules, a deportation order typically expired after four years. This created an incentive for some individuals to go “underground,” evade authorities, and wait out the four-year period. Once the order expired, they could often re-apply for asylum, starting the process all over again.

Effective April 1, 2025, these rules were tightened significantly. The new legislation ensures that a deportation order does not expire in the same way as long as the individual remains in the country. This change removes the incentive to hide. Knowing that the deportation order will remain valid indefinitely makes “waiting it out” a futile strategy, leading more individuals to comply with the decision to leave.

3. Intensified Internal Controls by the Police

While legislative changes provide the legal framework, enforcement requires action on the ground. The Swedish Police Authority (Polisen) has been tasked with intensifying “internal alien controls” (inre utlänningskontroller).

These are checks carried out within Swedish territory—not just at the borders—to verify that foreign citizens have the right to be in the country. The government has prioritized these controls as a tool to combat the “shadow society.”

Increased resources and clearer directives to the police have resulted in more individuals without legal status being identified. Once identified, these individuals are handed over to the Migration Agency or the police’s own return units for processing. The collaboration between the Swedish Police and the Migration Agency has been streamlined to ensure that decisions are executed more efficiently than in the past.

4. The Focus on Voluntary Return and 2026 Incentives

Interestingly, the increase in departures is not solely due to forced deportations. There is also a rise in “voluntary returns,” driven by a combination of stricter enforcement and new financial incentives.

The Swedish Migration Agency has ramped up its information campaigns, making it clear to rejected asylum seekers that the likelihood of staying is low. This “reality check,” combined with support for reintegration, has pushed more people to accept the decision and leave.

Looking ahead to 2026, this trend is set to explode. The government has proposed a massive increase in the repatriation grant (återvandringsbidrag). Starting in 2026, individuals who voluntarily return to their home countries could be eligible for up to 350,000 SEK (approx. €30,000).

Although this high amount is not fully implemented for everyone yet, the announcement itself signals a changing tide. The message is clear: the state is willing to pay significantly for voluntary departure, but it will also enforce strict deportation for those who refuse. This dual pressure is reshaping decision-making for thousands of migrants.

5. Lower Asylum Numbers = More Resources for Returns

Finally, it is important to look at the broader statistical picture. The number of new asylum seekers coming to Sweden has dropped to historically low levels (forecasted to be around 6,500-7,000 in 2025).

With fewer new applications to process, the Swedish Migration Agency has been able to shift its resources. Personnel and funds that were previously used for handling new arrivals are now being reallocated to the “return” (återvändande) units. This administrative shift means that old cases are being closed faster, and deportation orders are being processed with greater speed and focus.

Conclusion: A Permanent Change?

The increase in deportations we are seeing in late 2025 is not a temporary spike; it is the intended result of a long-term policy restructuring. By closing legal loopholes like spårbyte, extending the validity of deportation orders, and empowering the police to conduct more checks, Sweden has made it significantly harder to reside in the country without a valid permit.

As we enter 2026, the implementation of the new EU Migration Pact and the potential introduction of the higher repatriation grants will likely cement this trend. For foreign citizens in Sweden, it is more important than ever to have verified, up-to-date information from official sources regarding their legal status.